John Deere Classic Preview
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Course Description
Weather
Custom Model
Ownership
DFS Picks
Betting Picks
John Deere Classic
TPC Deere Run / Silvis, IL
Tournament Preview
The 2025 John Deere Classic is a PGA TOUR event held annually at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, from July 3–6, 2025. This tournament, in its 54th year, is a significant stop on the PGA TOUR, known for its low-scoring nature and community engagement. It remains a critical event for players vying for FedExCup points, with only five weeks left until the 2025 FedExCup Playoffs. The winner earns 500 FedExCup points and a $1.44 million share of the $8.4 million purse, along with a potential spot in The Open Championship as a qualifying event. The 2025 edition features notable players like defending champion Davis Thompson, who set a tournament record in 2024 with a 28-under-par 256, along with Ben Griffin (+1400 betting favorite), Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler, and rising stars like Aldrich Potgieter and Michael Thorbjornsen. The event is also known for launching the careers of major champions like Jordan Spieth (2013), Brian Harman (2014), and Bryson DeChambeau (2017).
Course Description:
TPC Deere Run, designed by former PGA TOUR professional D.A. Weibring and design partner Steve Wolfard, opened in 2000 and has hosted the John Deere Classic annually since then (except in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic). Built on a former Arabian horse farm in the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, the course is set in a rural, tree-lined landscape near the Rock River, offering a picturesque and strategic layout. It is ranked No. 42 among Golf Digest’s 100 Greatest Public Golf Courses and among the top five courses in Illinois by Golfweek Magazine.
Course Details: Par and Yardage: Par 71, 7,289 yards from the championship tees.
Fairways and Greens: Bentgrass fairways and greens, known for being soft and lush, with greens that are receptive but relatively simple to read.
Bunkers and Water Hazards: 75 bunkers and three water hazards. A 2020–2021 renovation reduced bunker square footage by 30%, repositioned some for strategic impact, and tightened fairways near landing zones to challenge longer hitters.
Course Difficulty: Ranked the 9th easiest on the PGA TOUR (50th of 51 courses at -1.57 difficulty), making it a “birdie-fest” where winners have averaged 20-under or better over the past six years. Notable low scores include Paul Goydos and Hayden Springer each shooting a 59 in past tournaments.
TPC Deere Run rewards players who excel at fairway accuracy, wedge play, and putting. The wide fairways and receptive greens favor strategic course management over raw power, with past winners like Steve Stricker, Jordan Spieth, and Brian Harman showcasing these skills. The course’s low-scoring nature emphasizes birdie production, with elite putting and approach play being key differentiators. Players like Denny McCarthy, with strong course history (three consecutive top-7 finishes) and elite putting stats, are well-suited to the layout.
Weather
There is virtually no weather edge for either wave this week. The winds are consistent across both days, the temperatures peak in and around the low 90s both days and the only rain that is in the forecast for Thursday/Friday is overnight and it is minimal. No need to sugarcoat anything. Saturday the wind might actually play a factor, but this course is easy enough that they should be able to still score and the rain Saturday evening into Sunday will likely soften things up for them to score at will on Sunday. I fully expect this tournament to follow the same path it did last year with a winner at or better than -23. Will we see someone push Davis Thompson’s tournament record of -28 from last year? I don’t know, but it will be extremely scoreable.
Custom Model
Model Values (Last 36 Rounds):
wSG:Approach: 12%
wSG:T2G: 12%
wSG:Putting: 12%
SG:Total 2+: 5%
Birdie or Better %: 14%
Driving Accuracy: 15%
Driving Distance: 5%
SG:Putting (Bentgrass): 5%
SG:Easy Courses: 10%
SG:TPC Deere Run: 10%
Ownership and Picks
High Ownership Options (By Price Range):
$10,000+
a) Ben Griffin ($10,400)
b) Jason Day ($10,500)
$9,000
a) Denny McCarthy ($9,900)
b) Michael Thorbjornsen ($9,100)
$8,000
a) Ryan Gerard ($8,500)
b) Kevin Yu ($8,800)
$7,000
a) Aldrich Potgieter ($7,900)
b) Nico Echavarria ($7,800)
$6,000
a) Carson Young ($6,700)
b) Jackson Koivun ($6,800)
Favorite Golfers:
Ben Griffin ($10,400): We started the year with an incredible run from Michael Kim and now we have Ben Griffin. Another week where he gains across the bag on his way to a T13 at the Rocket Classic. Now he gets to go to another course that favors him in every way EXCEPT it values Driving Accuracy quite highly which is not Ben’s strong suit. Maybe that should be the reason I move off of him at higher ownership, but he just finds ways to get it done. Within the last month, Murfield and Colonial favor Accuracy over Distance and he finished 2nd and 1st respectively so why can’t he do the same thing this week in an incredibly weak field. I have been on the train the last few weeks and don’t plan to get off now. Biases aside, you can probably avoid the $10,000 range and be fine this week.
Sungjae Im ($9,200): I think this is the type of tournament I am going to take long term talent over some recency bias young guns who will be at much higher ownership. Sungjae is probably a top 5 talent in this field and is just going through a slump. He has been hemorrhaging strokes on approach over his last 8 tournaments, failing to gain in any of those contests. However, he has gained on approach in each of the last two years at TPC Deere Run, he is 3rd in the field over the last 36 rounds in Driving Accuracy and plays Easy courses quite well which is what you really need this week. I think if he can just find something with his irons then there is a strong chance he contends this week. At sub 10% ownership, I am willing to take a chance. Just know, this is a very high risk/very high reward type of play so play at your own risk.
Luke Clanton ($8,700): I said I was going to favor long term talent over recency bias young guns, but I will make an exception for Clanton. I think he is the real deal and one of the budding young stars that could actually push into elite territory sooner rather than later. He is great on approach and has spike putting upside on Bentgrass surfaces. He finished T2 here last year where he gained across the bag in a massive way. He is a birdie or better machine and it really feels like he is just underpriced for his current form. I think he should be up there with Gotterup and Thorbjornsen who are similar young talents. The icing on the cake for me is his ownership isn’t even that high. At 10% you are getting a lot of leverage with others looking to others around him. Sign me up.
Andrew Putnam ($7,600): The two biggest factors this week are likely to be Driving Accuracy and SG:Putting with it being a birdie fest. The only guy in the top 15 in both of those categories is Andrew Putnam who is coming off of back to back top 10s at the Rocket Classic and Canadian Open. This field is by far worse than both of those and he really isn’t coming in with much ownership. 10% is a still a touch high for the range, but there are others drawing closer to 15% which is a lot riskier. Hopefully he can carry his strong recent form into this one where he fits the mold you need to be successful.
Hayden Springer ($6,900): For starters, the $6,000 range is quite putrid with little no substance. It is basically just fringe PGA guys who really are very specialized players (only good at one thing) or just average at best across the board. That makes me want to look at Course History to see if anyone stands out which brings me to Springer. He was T7 here last year which makes me want to dig deeper. He has made 11 of his last 13 cuts and over the last 36 rounds he is top 25 in SG:Putting, 43rd in Birdie or Better % which isn’t bad, top 35 in Driving Distance paired with solid Accuracy as well. The last nugget to talk about his he is 4th in this field on Easy courses. I think that is enough for me to take a chance on him. Could he completely flop? Of course. However, there is a sneaky amount of data pointing towards him and at 4% ownership you really can’t go wrong.
Best Bets
All bets are based on odds from Draftkings Sportsbook
Denny McCarthy vs. Harry Higgs vs. Alejandro Tosti 3-Ball, McCarthy (-105): This one might be a really dumb bet given in a 3-Ball matchup it is usually negative EV to take someone at less than even money. However, McCarthy just dominates this course year in and year out with top 10s in each of the last 3 years. Higgs and Tosti just aren’t on the same planet as Denny when it comes to talent so I am going to take a swing on him at close to even money. Neither of Higgs or Tosti are top 70 in this field for Birdie or Better % so I don’t see either of them going scorch earth to put up a massive R1 score to possibly beat McCarthy.
Andrew Putnam Top 30 (+160): I don’t need to elaborate on this one much. I talked about him above and he is coming off of back to back top 10 finishes. He seems to have found something and fits this course very well. Getting this much juice on him just top 30 feels like a bargain.
Outright Winner Bets: Luke Clanton 35/1, Sungjae Im 35/1, Andrew Putnam 70/1, Hayden Springer 150/1
Make the Cut Parlay: Grillo/Clanton/Putnam/Champ (+477) on Draftkings Sportsbook
