Scottish Open Preview
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Course Description
Weather
Custom Model
Ownership
DFS Picks
Betting Picks
Scottish Open
The Renaissance Club / North Berwick, Scotland
Tournament Preview
The 2025 Genesis Scottish Open is a prestigious professional golf tournament held at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, East Lothian, Scotland, from July 10-13, 2025. As a co-sanctioned event by the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, and part of the Rolex Series, it attracts a world-class field and serves as a key lead-up to The Open Championship, offering three spots for non-exempt players to qualify for the major at Royal Portrush
Format: 72-hole stroke play, with a cut after 36 holes (Friday) to the top 65 players and ties. The tournament begins with a Pro-Am on Wednesday, followed by four competitive rounds from Thursday to Sunday.
Prize Fund: $9 million, with the winner receiving approximately $1,575,000 (17.5% of the total).
History: Established in 1972, the Scottish Open has been hosted at various iconic venues like Gleneagles, Loch Lomond, and Castle Stuart. Since 2019, The Renaissance Club has been the host, with the event gaining Rolex Series status in 2017 and PGA Tour co-sanctioning in 2022. Past winners include Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy (2023), and Robert MacIntyre (2024).
Course Description: The Renaissance ClubDesigner: Tom Doak, with enhancements by Padraig Harrington. Opened in April 2008.
Location: Situated on Scotland’s East Lothian coastline, 20 miles east of Edinburgh, between Muirfield and North Berwick Golf Clubs, near the Firth of Forth.
Yardage and Par: 7,237 yards, par-70, with five par-3s and three par-5s, an unusual configuration compared to traditional links courses.
Course Type: Modern links-style, carved from 300 acres of pine forest, with over 8,500 tons of wood cleared during construction. While not a “True Links” course due to retained trees, it blends classic links features with modern design.
Weather Impact: The coastal location means wind and rain can significantly affect play, with scores varying widely based on conditions. Players must adapt to unpredictable Scottish summer weather.
Weather
Anytime we are playing in Europe, there is a chance that we see some serious weather that could have an affect on the tournament and present a wave advantage. The weather can also drastically change from not just day to day but hour to hour, so take this with a grain of salt. Thursday looks fairly even across the board. The Thursday PM wave will likely see some showers that could soften things up for them, but you are almost always going to get some rollout on a links course. The real advantage will come with the Friday AM group getting much lower winds at the moment. That could easily turn into upwards of a 1 stroke advantage if the gusts are as strong as it is showing for Friday PM. With that said, I am currently seeing a fairly clear wave advantage for the PM/AM group. Obviously come the weekend, things will change. It just needs to be noted that they will have a leg up and it is likely we see somewhere from 60-65% or more of golfers that make the cut come from that wave. Honestly the same weather conditions we see on Friday are going to be around for Saturday and Sunday, so there is a chance we see some early tee time risers across the entire tournament. Links golf is probably my favorite to watch, so this is shaping up to be a great Scottish Open with how strong the field is in preparation for the Open the following week.
Custom Model
Model Values (Last 36 Rounds):
Driving Distance: 20%
wSG:Around the Green: 15%
wSG:Putting: 15%
wSG:Approach: 10%
Approach from 175-200: 8%
Approach from 200-225: 8%
SG:Renaissance Club: 8%
SG:Par 3: 6%
Bogey Avoidance: 5%
Scrambling: 5%
Ownership and Picks
High Ownership Options (By Price Range):
$10,000+
a) Scottie Scheffler ($13,100)
b) Rory McIlroy ($11,400)
$9,000
a) Robert MacIntyre ($9,100)
b) Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900)
$8,000
a) Matt Fitzpatrick ($8,800)
b) Ryan Fox ($8,500)
$7,000
a) Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson ($7,600)
b) Rasmus Hojgaard ($7,900)
$6,000
a) Kristoffer Reitan ($6,900)
b) Brian Campbell ($6,500)
Favorite Golfers:
Rory McIlroy ($11,400): He showed me enough his last outing for me to believe he is going to lock in for this European swing he is about to embark on. At a nearly $2,000 discount over Scottie, I think you get a guy that might actually be better on this style of course and Scottie has said in the past he doesn’t play too well on unpredictable courses. Links golf is probably the most unpredictable style of golf there is. Once you hit it that ball could go anywhere after the first bounce or even roll out 100 yards in some cases. This is definitely a distance over accuracy type of course which Rory provides and his around the green and putting metrics have shown me enough that I think he can easily win here again like he did back in 2023.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900): He might be a massive choke artist, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a good DFS play. We need strong around the green and putting play like I said with Rory, which Fleetwood provides. He has a ton of success at this course with top 10s in 3 of his last 5 trips to the Renaissance Club and is in familiar territory being a British native. I don’t think his latest deflating loss to Keegan Bradley on the last hole will drag his game down at all. Even without the driving distance, he should be just fine this week given his long irons are fairly strong. Look for Fleetwood to bounce back this week.
JJ Spaun ($8,100): Are we really about to let Spaun who is the most recent major champion and followed it up with a great top 15 performance at the Travelers be the lowest owned guy in this price range? He showed at the US Open that he can play in tough conditions which this could end up being if the wind becomes an issue. He might not be the prototypical links style golfer we are looking for and doesn’t model exceptionally well, but he is just good in all facets of the game right now. I will take the massive ownership advantage on him this week and hope he can replicate his US Open magic.
Thorbjorn Olesen ($7,400): So there is some concern that he has missed 2 of his last 3 cuts. The thing is this style of golf is vastly different than those courses he was playing on so I will give him a pass and look strictly at the numbers. He is top 20 in this field in all of wSG:Putting, Bogey Avoidance and SG:Par 3s which is crucial this week given there are 5 Par 3s. He is also a great scrambler and can hit it a mile. He has top 40 finishes each of the last 3 years here at the Renaissance Club so there is certainly some good history. I just think the numbers stand out in a big way for something that is being projected for just 3% ownership. He is definitely worth taking a shot on this week.
Sami Valimaki ($6,800): He is definitely a boom or bust golfer, with 3 MCs in his last 5 but the other two were top 20s including a T7 at the Myrtle Beach Classic. He doesn’t hit it the furthest which could pose some issues, but he is 2nd in this field from 200-225 over his last 36 rounds which more than makes up for it. It is all positive after that with him being top 30 in wSG:Approach, top 15 in wSG:Putting and top 10 on Par 3s. I think this could be a great spot for him and the ownership projection is only 1%. There is going to be a DPWT Euro guy that is down here that beats him, but knowing which is going to be almost impossible to predict. I will just take the guy that I have data for and it is actually looking promising for him.
Best Bets
All bets are based on odds from Draftkings Sportsbook
Ryan Fox vs. Daniel Berger, Fox (-115): This isn’t as much about liking Fox as it is I don’t like where Berger’s game is at right now. His putting has been horrendous and he doesn’t hit it far which are two things he will have to do this week for success. Fox on the other hand has 2 wins in his last 6 starts, has top 20s in 5 of the last 6 and has shown some success here and at other links golf courses. I think his strong approach play will easily get him to beat Berger this week. Not to mention -115 is a pretty decent number.
Matt Fitzpatrick Top 20 (+190): I think this is a great number to get on Fitzy who is coming into good form at the right time. His DFS ownership is through the roof, so I think a lot of the field would agree with this bet. He is 3rd in my model behind just Rory and Scottie due to him being top 40 in every single stat we modeled for except for Driving Distance which he is still above average in. He is coming off of a T8 and T17 in his last two starts and is back at a place he has shown success with a T2 and T6 back in 2021 and 2022. At almost 2/1 odds, I think he can comfortably get a top 20 this week and possibly contend for the win.
Outright Winner Bets: Viktor Hovland 40/1, Matt Fitzpatrick 45/1, Harry Hall 65/1, Sami Valimaki 200/1
Make the Cut Parlay: Matt Wallace/Victor Perez/Sami Valimaki/Conner Syme: +1000
