PGA Championship Preview
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Our articles will follow a simple, yet effective structure that will give you everything you need to be successful in the Daily Fantasy and Betting Space for the upcoming tournament
Course Description
Weather
Custom Model
Ownership
DFS Picks
Betting Picks
PGA Championship
Quail Hollow / Charlotte, NC
Course Description
The 2025 PGA Championship marked a return to Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, which previously hosted the tournament in 2017. The course, known for its challenging "Green Mile" finishing stretch of holes 16-18, has been a regular PGA Tour stop and continues to be one of the premier championship venues in the southeastern United States.
Tournament Details:
Venue: Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, NC
Course: Par 71, 7,576 yards
Purse: Unknown, usually released during the tournament
Past PGA Championship Winners at Quail Hollow:
2017: Justin Thomas
Recent PGA Championship Winners (through 2024):
2024: Xander Schauffele
2023: Brooks Koepka
2022: Justin Thomas
2021: Phil Mickelson
2020: Collin Morikawa
Weather
Being from the area, there is without a doubt going to be a massive amount of rain from Monday to Wednesday with very little let up. I can almost guarantee we see lift, clean and replace Thursday just because the course is still going to be that wet. With that in mind, I expect the longer hitters to have even more of an advantage with it playing longer than even the distance suggests. They will do what they can to dry this place out by Thursday, but I don’t think it will be enough for the first few days. When looking for a weather edge, we are really looking for wind to pick up or die off at around mid-day to 1 PM. At the moment, things seem to be fairly steady for both Thursday and Friday with higher gusts coming Thursday and just a normal breeze on Friday. It isn’t enough to suggest there could be a weather edge. Saturday is where the true test will come with wind gusts getting close to 30 mph towards the later half of the day which could pose some troubles for the groups going off late. I think we see some serious movers that day, so maybe for Saturday Showdown you can target lower owned options going off early that are showing signs of good ball striking. Sunday is when things will settle down, but the we will likely see sustained wind in the mid to high teens all day which doesn’t pose much threat to either the guys going off early or late.
Custom Model
Quail Hollow demands you to be long off the tee, hit your long irons well and then putt the lights out. I can almost guarantee whoever does end up winning this week is top 20 in 3/4 of SG:OTT, Driving Distance, Approach from the 150-225 yard ranges and SG:Putting. With long irons comes scrambling because this course has one of the lowest GIR% on tour so both of those categories carry significant importance and if your putts aren’t falling you won’t find your way to the top. I am HEAVILY weighted in those categories and would be extremely shocked if someone that didn’t fit that mold actually contended this week. The weather coming in is going to feature a ton of rain which will slow down the roll out speeds on the fairway. That will make things play even longer, so no doubt a bomber is your 2025 PGA Championship winner.
Ownership and Picks
High Ownership Options (By Price Range):
$10,000+
a) Scottie Scheffler ($13,400)
b) Rory McIlroy ($12,200)
c) Bryson DeChambeau ($11,500)
$9,000
a) Justin Thomas ($9,900)
b) Patrick Cantlay ($9,500)
c) Joaquin Niemann ($9,600)
$8,000
a) Corey Conners ($8,300)
b) Patrick Reed ($8,100)
c) Sepp Straka ($8,000)
$7,000
a) Daniel Berger ($7,900)
b) Keegan Bradley ($7,200)
c) Sam Burns ($7,700)
$6,000
a) Keith Mitchell ($6,200)
b) Andrew Novak ($6,600)
c) Harris English ($6,800)
$5,000
a) Niklas Norgaard Moller ($5,400)
b) Mackenzie Hughes ($5,600)
c) Gary Woodland ($5,800)
Favorite Golfers:
Rory McIlroy ($12,200): The run that he is on currently is borderline as good if not better than that of Scottie last year. He brought his C game to the Truist last week and still finished T7. He has 4 wins dating back to last October and not a single finish outside of the top 20 in that span as well. This includes his breakthrough win at the Masters for the career Grand Slam. He is just on fire right now, $1,200 cheaper than Scottie and going to a course that he has 4 wins at and is a textbook fit for the course itself. He hits it a mile, hits his long irons well and is top 15 in this field in SG:Putting this season. What more can you ask for. This was a tough decision between him, Bryson and Xander, but I can’t go against Rory in the form he currently has.
Justin Thomas ($9,900): I know we might be starting off chalky with both Rory and JT getting massive ownership, but they just fit so well for this course and tournament. JT has 2 PGA Championship trophies to his name, including the one in 2017 which was played at… Quail Hollow. He is long enough off the tee, a great scrambler if his long irons (which are also great) aren’t on and has gained strokes putting in 5 straight events. He just checks every box for me and most of this range don’t. They check a lot of them, but not as many as JT. He was my favorite last week in the $10,000 range and paid dividends so why not continue to roll with him this week at a track that he has shown the ability to win at.
Sungjae Im ($8,200): This is where we are going to start to get different. Sungjae is slowly starting to round back into form with a T5 at the only major this year (Masters) which was followed up by a T11 at the Heritage. He isn’t the longest which is slightly concerning for me, but in the past at Quail Hollow it hasn’t been a factor. His last two trips to Charlotte for the Wells Fargo resulted in a T4 and T8 in 2024 and 2023. He gained a ton of strokes putting in both of those weeks and actually gained across the bag in both as well. He is 5th in this field on Long Courses which is exactly what Quail Hollow projects as and is top 20 in Approach from 200-225 yards which is a range that most shots will come from this week. I think he is a very sneaky option from this range with a lot of ownership going to the guys directly above and below him (Conners, Reed and Straka). He likely will be the forgotten guy of the group.
Sam Burns ($7,700): This entire range is just guys that either don’t hit it far or can’t putt. I don’t think many are going to be able to really push up the leaderboard lacking one or both of those things. The only guy that does both… Sam Burns. What scares me is his approach game is quite atrocious right now, having lost in that category in 9 straight events. However, in 4 of the last 5 he has barely lost on approach and in his last trip to Quail Hollow he did gain in that category. If I am being quite honest, this is likely to be a salary range I don’t get much of other than Burns and Akshay (who really only lacks in distance), but Burns does check some of the more important boxes this week.
Stephen Jaeger ($6,500): I really think this is a course that could lend to Jaeger’s strengths. He is long enough off of the tee that he can avoid some of the trouble that the shorter hitters will have to face. That will also lead to him getting to use some shorter irons into the green. Something that I haven’t exactly talked about yet is these greens are tough to hold, so Apex Height is another subtly important stat to look at. Jaeger is 18th on the PGA tour this season in that category (Burns is 17th, Sungjae 100th, Thomas 15th, Rory 8th). The long irons in general are solid, he is very good for this price range on long courses and is a solid putter. He shockingly checks almost every box you could want for this week. I think the best way to put it is he is good at everything Quail Hollow asks for, but not great. I don’t see him contending, but at this price if he can get you a top 30 or even top 20 I think that is more than enough considering the strength of the field.
Niklas Norgaard Moller ($5,400): I don’t actually think he will be at the ownership that the industry is projecting him for, but if he is then I would be a bit scared. Regardless, he is 9th in the field in Driving Distance and 17th in SG:Putting. He is top 30 as well in GIR% and has played long courses well enough in the past for me to say sign me up. He has never played at Quail Hollow and this is his debut in a major so I expect absolutely nothing. He just models well for the type of golfer you want at this course and is coming off of a T5 at the Myrtle Beach Classic last week.
Best Bets
All bets are based on odds from Draftkings Sportsbook
R1 Keith Mitchell vs. Sergio Garcia, Mitchell (-120): This is way too close for a golfer that has shown the ability to go incredibly low in the opening rounds, hits it a mile and is going up against an older guy who has finished bottom of the pack in each of the last 2 LIV events and also MC’d at the only major this season. Not to mention Sergio’s history at the PGA Championship is dreadful, missing the cut in 7 of the last 8. This just feels like way too good of a number to pass up.
Stephen Jaeger Top 30 (+235): I talked about in detail above, but I just think Jaeger is set up to do very well at this course. He checks a lot of the boxes you need to succeed at Quail Hollow and is coming off a very strong performance at the Truist last week with a T7 and gaining across the bag. I think if he can just make it to the weekend (which almost 2/3s of the field will), he can make a move up the board and break into that top 30.
Winner: Bryson DeChambeau or Rory McIlroy
