Tour Championship Preview
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Course Description
Weather
Custom Model
Ownership
DFS Picks
Betting Picks
Tour Championship
East Lake Golf Club
Tournament Preview
The 2025 TOUR Championship, the culminating event of the PGA TOUR’s FedExCup Playoffs, will take place from August 20–24, 2025, at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. This prestigious tournament brings together the top 30 players in the FedExCup standings to compete for the FedExCup title and a share of a $40 million purse, with $10 million awarded to the champion. Below is a detailed description of the course and the tournament, based on the latest available information.
Location: Atlanta, Georgia, approximately five miles east of downtown.
Established: 1904, making it Atlanta’s oldest golf course.
Par and Yardage: Par 70, 7,440 yards.
Fairways: Tight, tree-lined fairways converted from Meyer Zoysia to Zorro Zoysia in 2024, firming up the ground and increasing ball roll, which emphasizes the course’s topography and demands tee-shot accuracy.
Greens: Firm, fast, and challenging, requiring precision in approach shots and strong lag-putting skills.
For the first time since 2018, the 2025 TOUR Championship will be a 72-hole stroke-play event with all 30 players starting at even par, eliminating the staggered Starting Strokes format used from 2019–2024. This change, announced as part of the PGA TOUR’s Fan Forward initiative, ensures a level playing field where the lowest total score over four rounds determines the FedExCup champion.
The format shift aims to create more risk/reward moments and align the winning score closer to par, enhancing drama and competition.
No 36-hole cut is applied, allowing all 30 players to compete through the final round.
The top 30 players in the FedExCup standings qualify after the BMW Championship, the second of three playoff events (preceded by the FedEx St. Jude Championship).
Notable qualifiers include Scottie Scheffler (No. 1, reigning 2024 FedExCup champion, seeking to be the first back-to-back winner), Rory McIlroy (No. 2, with three TOUR Championship wins), J.J. Spaun (No. 3), and Justin Rose (No. 4, 2018 FedExCup champion). McIlroy holds the longest active streak of TOUR Championship appearances (eight).
Disclaimer/Full Transparency: I did use AI for this, so if it directly took content from and article or piece that you have written, I would love to give credit where credit is due.
Weather
The weather on the East Coast has been pretty horrid lately and it doesn’t look to be getting any better for this week sadly. A lot of rain is projected for the forecast this week, so things could get dicey. With everyone going off from 11 AM - 2 PM EST, a weather wave advantage is extremely unlikely, but some guys just do better with water on the ground than others. Wind isn’t going to be anything serious so no issues there, no crazy temperature changes and a fairly consistent light rain will make this course scoreable. All in all, there are only 30 golfers and it is arguably the best 30 on Tour so expect great golf and you can play just about all of them if you like. No need to factor in weather this week.
Custom Model
Model Values (Last 36 Rounds):
SG:T2G - 15%
SG:PUTT - 15%
Driving Accuracy - 15%
SG:APR - 10%
GIR% - 10%
Approach from 175-200 - 10%
Birdie or Better Gained % - 10%
SG:TOT - 5%
SG:TOT 2+ - 5%
Good Drive % - 5%
Ownership and Picks
High Ownership Options (By Price Range):
$10,000+
a) Scottie Scheffler ($13,900)
b) Rory McIlroy ($11,300)
$9,000
a) Viktor Hovland ($9,400)
b) Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900)
$8,000
a) JJ Spaun ($8,100)
b) Collin Morikawa ($8,300)
$7,000
a) Cam Young ($7,900)
b) Ben Griffin ($7,700)
$6,000
a) Jacob Bridgeman ($6,100)
b) Shane Lowry ($6,400)
Favorite Golfers:
Scottie Scheffler ($13,900): It might be a bit tough to fit him in this week, but I would be shocked if he doesn’t win this week. We are modelling for 10 different statistics this week. He is top 3 in this field in 8 of those 10 with the only outliers being SG:PUTT where he is 8th and that is arguably the most improved part of his game and Driving Accuracy which is still 11th in this field. Don’t get cute on this one and just roll out Scottie. Given how thin the field is, there is a path for him to win and still not be optimal if none of the bottom feeders do anything. However, there is almost always 1 or 2 that can produce a solid finish which will make Scottie optimal as well. It is crazy to think Scottie has actually improved in the SG:TOT metric significantly from his 2024 season where he had 9 wins (2025 = 2.81 SG:TOT / 2024 = 2.55 SG:TOT).
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900): The game looks so pure right now for Tommy who has to eventually pick up a win. It would be comical if his first win on tour were to come at the highest grossing tournament of the year in a very small field, but I certainly think with where his game is at it is possible. This course demands accuracy and really penalizes from the rough, so Fleetwood being 4th in Driving Accuracy over the last 36 rounds is a huge bonus. Like Scottie, he is top 10 in just about every model statistic except for SG:TOT 2+, GIR% and Approach from 175-200 which he is still top 15 in. It is hard to overlook back to back top 5s to start the FedEx Cup playoffs. I think he finishes strong as well.
Collin Morikawa ($8,300): This one scares me with how horrible of a putter he has been lately, but if he wants to claim one of the final spots on the Ryder Cup team, I think he has to put up a solid performance this week. You will need accuracy this week which he is still elite at (1st in this field over the last 36 rounds) and a lot of the other modeling stats we are looking at he is top 10 in this field in (SG:APR, GIR%, SG:TOT 2+, Good Drive %). He technically would have won here last year if they used this years format, so I think it is safe to say he likes the course. If we can just figure out the yips on the greens and just be a 0 in that category, I think he has the upside to contend. I like this entire range, but I think Collin fits the mold well here enough to warrant taking a swing on him even with him slumping.
Cam Young ($7,900): No chance I get off the Cam Young wagon at the final stop. This guy is playing unreal to end the season and actually has the tools to possibly go out and win this week. It will be tough with how strong this field is, but the driver has been borderline top 5-10 in this field, the putter is off the charts good and his long irons which will be important this week have been great. He is 5th in Birdies or Better Gained over the last 36 which will go a long way towards him contending. The Driving Accuracy is a bit of a concern, but if he can pick up 5 penalty strokes last week and still finish 11th in that field, he can come back this week and probably do even better. I just think he is trending so well right now and is eager to show why he should be on this year’s Ryder Cup.
Shane Lowry ($6,400): Lowry has been a bit underwhelming as of late, but he is a much better fit for this golf course than others down here in this range. He is 6th in Driving Accuracy which is crucial and 4th in SG:APR. He should be able to get to the green just fine. The putter will be the difference maker. Yes he is 2nd to last in SG:PUTT over the last 36 in this field, but most of that is because at the US Open he lost a whopping 6 strokes putting in just 2 rounds. That is abysmal. The one time he has played at East Lake, which was last year, he was 6th in the field in SG:PUTT. He likes these greens and that has been the only thing really holding him back. Pair a strong putter with the rest of his game and he could legit contend. I hope that is what happens this week.
Best Bets
All bets are based on odds from Draftkings Sportsbook
R1 Matchup - Hideki vs. McNealy, Hideki (-115): This is more of a gut feeling play than data-derived one. This will be Hideki’s 11th Tour Championship start, all at East Like mind you. It will be McNealy’s first and he isn’t the best course fit anyways. He is very inaccurate off of the tee and not good with his long irons. That just won’t fly here. As for Matsuyama he has played exceptionally well here in his 10 trips with a number of top 10s and will really be vying for his first official FedEx Cup. I know McNealy is really playing for a spot on the Ryder Cup team and Deki isn’t, but I just think in Round 1 with a lot of the pressure on him, McNealy might not perform as well as someone with years of experience at East Lake.
Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 (-150): You aren’t getting much juice on this bet, but with just 30 golfers in the field and a solid 8-10 being guys that just don’t have what it takes to win this one, I think Fleetwood can easily make a top 10 happen. The analysis on him is in the “Favorite Golfers” section above, so let’s ride with Tommy and hope he can not only top 10, but possibly get his 1st win and the monkey off of his back.
Outright Winner Bets:
Fleetwood (14/1)
Morikawa (28/1)
Cam Young (30/1)
Conners (40/1)
Lowry (60/1)
