BMW Championship Preview
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Course Description
Weather
Custom Model
Ownership
DFS Picks
Betting Picks
BMW Championship
Caves Valley Golf Club
Tournament Preview
The 2025 BMW Championship, the second of three events in the PGA TOUR’s FedExCup Playoffs, is scheduled for August 14-17, 2025, at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. This tournament features the top 50 players in the FedExCup standings, following the FedEx St. Jude Championship, competing for a $20 million purse, with $3.6 million awarded to the winner. The event is crucial, as only the top 30 players advance to the TOUR Championship at East Lake, and it serves as the final opportunity for automatic qualification for the U.S. Ryder Cup team. A no-cut event, it promises four days of high-stakes golf, with defending champion Keegan Bradley and top players like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and past winner Patrick Cantlay in the field. The tournament supports the Evans Scholars Foundation, raising over $60 million since 2007 for youth caddie scholarships.
Key Course Features:
Length and Layout: Par 70, 7,601 yards, converted from a par-72 in 2021 by changing the 525-yard second and 521-yard 12th holes to par-4s. The course has two par-5s, 12 par-4s, and four par-3s, with a net increase of nearly 60 yards since 2021.
Greens: Newly recontoured bentgrass greens, averaging 5,200 square feet, are smaller than the PGA TOUR average and run at 12.5 on the Stimpmeter. Enhanced with PrecisionAire subsurface systems for firmer, faster conditions, they feature more challenging pin positions and multi-tiered designs.
Fairways and Rough: Bentgrass fairways, tightened to approximately 25 yards wide, demand accuracy off the tee. The rough, a mix of ryegrass, bluegrass, and fescue, has been grown to over 4 inches, up from 3 inches in 2021, increasing penalties for errant drives.
Hazards: Water comes into play on five holes, with renovations bringing greens closer to hazards on holes 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 11, and 17, adding risk to approach shots. Fairway bunkers and dense vegetation further tighten landing areas.
Disclaimer/Full Transparency: I did use AI for this, so if it directly took content from and article or piece that you have written, I would love to give credit where credit is due.
Weather
Weather doesn’t look to be too crazy this week, but there is some rain in the forecast that could make things interesting. With it being a no-cut event and only 50 golfers, they will likely tee off from around 10 AM - 2 PM. Thursday it looks like we should see rain at some point throughout the round, likely coming a bit later which will soften things up. That should help out the later tee time golfers. However, the wind gusts are projected to pick up which likely negates any advantage they might have had. Friday looks sublime with barely any wind and no rain. I doubt there is any sort of advantage given these metrics. Just to not on it, the temperatures are actually quite low for the first few days, but will pick up on Sunday which might make it a tad bit tougher for golfers to hold the green. All things considered, no weather wave advantage and I expect this to be a birdie fest. The last time they played here at Caves Valley it resulted in a Patrick Cantlay win at a whopping -27. Do I expect that level of scoring? Probably not, but the winner is likely to be close to or over -20.
Custom Model
Model Values (Last 36 Rounds):
SG:PUTT - 15%
Birdie or Better % - 15%
Driving Distance - 15%
SG:TOT - 10%
GIR% - 10%
SG:TOT 2+ - 10%
Approach from 200-225 - 8%
Approach from 175-200 - 7%
SG:APR - 5%
SG:PUTT Bentgrass - 5%
Ownership and Picks
High Ownership Options (By Price Range):
$10,000+
a) Scottie Scheffler ($13,400)
b) Rory McIlroy ($11,400)
$9,000
a) Cameron Young ($9,800)
b) Ben Griffin ($9,100)
$8,000
a) Matt Fitzpatrick ($8,900)
b) Akshay Bhatia ($8,200)
$7,000
a) Kurt Kitayama ($7,600)
b) Rickie Fowler ($7,900)
$6,000
a) Ryan Fox ($6,200)
b) Jhonattan Vegas ($6,100)
Favorite Golfers:
Rory McIlroy ($11,400): While it is a bit unknown how much he might care about this tournament given he literally sat out last week for no good reason other than he didn’t need to play, he is almost as a good a fit for this golf course as it gets. It demands distance with it being a Par 70 at well over 7,500 yards. It will likely play even longer than that. He is the longest in this field beating out Gotterup by a good margin which will make things a lot easier for him. All the other metrics we are looking at he is top 5 in this field in other than the approach ones but that part of his game has been more than serviceable. He only has to beat out 48 other golfers and even with it being the best field he will face outside of the majors, he still is a step above them all. With the price discount and the looming skepticism of how much he wants it which will keep his ownership down, I think he is a great option this week.
Cameron Young ($9,800): He has the form, the drive to make the Ryder Cup team and the course fit for this week. Outside of maybe Scottie and Rory, I think he can be in the conversation as the next best option and quite possibly who should be the 3rd favorite in the betting odds. The distance is certainly there, he has been putting the lights out lately, the birdie or better % is top 5 in this field and he is great with his long irons. That is the exact recipe for success here at Caves Valley Golf Club. I know the ownership will be quite high, but I have no issue rolling with it and getting different elsewhere.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($8,900): There might not be a hotter golfer not named Scottie on tour right now other than Matt Fitzpatrick. He is running a hot putter which is great at any birdie fest type of track, his driver HAD been fantastic outside of last week where he had 2 just putrid rounds and he has gained over a stroke on Approach in 5 of the last 6 tournaments which have been some solid fields. He has the distance to make things easier which should put him firmly in the mix for success once again. In his only 4 BMW Championship starts, he has 2 top 6 finishes including a T2 in 2023 at Olympia Fields which is another long Par 70. Sign me up for some Fitzy this week.
Kurt Kitayama ($7,600): He is definitely going to be up there in ownership this week like Cam Young, but I can’t justify not playing him. The numbers lately have been way too good considering the price point he is at. He has gained across the board in a big way in each of his last 4 events including last week where he picked up a T9 at the St. Jude in a stacked field. The biggest difference has been the putter is finally gaining steam. He has gained in that category in each of the last 4 events as well which is very unlike him. If that continues this week it is very likely he turns out to be one of if not the best value $7,000 golfer. I mean how can you pass up the 3rd longest driver, THE BEST Birdie or Better and 5th best GIR% golfer in this field at that price tag? You can’t so just play him and if he burns you so be it.
Ryan Fox ($6,200): With how Draftkings did the salaries this week, you almost 100% will have to dip your toes into the $6,000 range if you want to get a big dog. Look no further than Ryan Fox. He is a great course fit this week being 8th in Driving Distance, 10th in SG:APR and 19th in SG:PUTT over the last 36 rounds. He hasn’t been great as of late, but it is more he is just treading water and then missing the cut on the number or not doing enough off the tee. This week you don’t have to be as accurate which will help. The last few tournaments have demanded accuracy which has held him back. At a bombers paradise I think he can thrive which is exactly what Caves Valley demands.
Best Bets
All bets are based on odds from Draftkings Sportsbook
Tournament Bet, Cam Young vs. Collin Morikawa, Young (-115): When you compare just the names, this seems like a silly take. However, when you look at the recent form, Cam Young has just been better. He is also a 10x better fit for this course with his distance being a big time strength. Collin over the last 36 rounds has been in the bottom 10 in this field in SG:PUTT, bottom 15 in Driving Distance and bottom 20 in Birdie or Better %. I just don’t think this is a good spot for Collin and his recent caddie changes will likely not help him out either.
Xander Schauffele Top 10 (+140): Xander is currently outside of the bubble for making it to East Lake. There is no room for error for the X Man if he wants a shot at taking down the FedEx Cup. He has the distance which will make this course a lot easier for him, he has something to play for and is starting to turn the corner with the putter again. When he is at his best, he can take down any golfer in this field so there is no reason he can’t pick up a 4th top 10 at the BMW Championship in a row this week?
Outright Winner Bets:
Schauffele 18/1
Young 30/1
Kitayama 45/1
Bhatia 50/1
Fox 110/1
