3M Open Preview
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Course Description
Weather
Custom Model
Ownership
DFS Picks
Betting Picks
3M Open
TPC Twin Cities / Blaine, Minnesota
Tournament Preview
The 2025 3M Open is a PGA Tour event held at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, from July 21–27, 2025. As the seventh edition of the tournament, it marks the PGA Tour’s first regular stop in Minnesota in five decades, succeeding the 3M Championship (1993–2018). The event, sponsored by Minnesota-based company 3M, brings 156 professional golfers to compete for a purse of approximately $8.3 million
Location: TPC Twin Cities, 11444 Tournament Players Parkway, Blaine, MN 55449
Field: 156 players, including notable names like Max Homa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, and Tony Finau. Thirty of the top 80 players in the Official World Golf Rankings are expected, making this the deepest field in the tournament’s history, partly due to its strategic position before the FedExCup Playoffs.
Format: 72-hole stroke play, with a cut after 36 holes to the top 65 players and ties.
Defending Champion: Jhonattan Vegas (2024, -17, one-stroke victory over Max Greyserman).
Par 71: 3 par 5s, 11 par 4s, 4 par 3s.
Yardage: 7,431 yards (PGA Tour setup), with six sets of tees (down to family tees for accessibility).
Greens: Large, undulating bentgrass greens, averaging a scoring rate of -0.61 per round (2019–2024).
Fairways: Bentgrass, framed by mature oak, spruce, and pine trees, with native prairie grasses and 27 bodies of water.
Hazards: Water is in play on 15 of 18 holes, contributing to one of the top five penalty stroke rates on the PGA Tour. Bunkers were enhanced with sand additions in 2025.
Weather
I don’t think I have seen a more consistent weather report over the course of this season. It is basically looking like each wave will have the exact same weather both days and into the weekend. Virtually no rain and mild to moderate winds will make this an incredibly scorable course. No need to ramble on about the forecast. Expect both waves to score very similarly and it to be a low scoring week. I expect the winner to close in on -20 if these conditions hold firm. No weather edge or wave advantage this week.
Custom Model
Model Values (Last 36 Rounds):
wSG:TOT - 15%
Birdie or Better % - 15%
Driving Accuracy - 15%
GIR% - 15%
Driving Distance - 10%
SG:TOT 2+ - 10%
wSG:PUTT - 8%
SG:TPC Twin Cities: 7%
SG:PUTT Bentgrass: 5%
Ownership and Picks
High Ownership Options (By Price Range):
$10,000+
a) Maverick McNealy ($10,300)
b) Chris Gotterup ($10,000)
$9,000
a) Max Greyserman ($9,300)
b) Tony Finau ($9,100)
$8,000
a) Michael Thorbjornsen ($8,500)
b) Akshay Bhatia ($8,000)
$7,000
a) Cam Champ ($7,900)
b) Doug Ghim ($7,300)
$6,000
a) Max McGreevy ($6,900)
b) David Skinns ($6,700)
Favorite Golfers:
Sam Burns ($10,500): I have some interest in everyone above $10,000, but with Burns coming in slightly lower owned, I am going to lean his direction as my favorite. Among the three, he is the highest in my model much due to his strong putting and good history around TPC Twin Cities. His approach game has come very far over the last few weeks which if it can continue will make him a big time birdie maker this week. He was fairly disappointing over seas with a T45 and T47, but those are two completely different course types. I think he comes back and continues the strong run on traditional golf courses that we were seeing prior to the Europe swing (5 straight top 20s, two top 10s and a solo 2nd at the Canadian Open). His game just fits this course extremely well.
Max Greyserman ($9,300): He is coming off of two missed cuts in Europe which I think come lock will suppress his ownership a bit. I know he is projected to be the highest owned in the $9,000 range right now, but there are plenty others hovering right around him that I think will surpass him. Prior to the Scottish and Open Championship, he was T2 at the Rocket Classic which is a similar field strength to this week. He finished solo 2nd in his first trip to Twin Cities last year which is very promising in which he gained big time across the bag. He is an elite putter and actually 5th in this field in SG:TOT and in the top 25 for SG:APP. I feel confident he can replicate his performance from last year and shake off the poor play from over in Europe this week.
Emiliano Grillo ($8,400): Over the last few months, Grillo is putting up some very solid numbers. He is top 10 in this field in SG:APP and Driving Accuracy along with being top 20 in GIR%. That is a solid recipe for success this week. His putter has been hit or miss, but when it hits he is gaining 2+ strokes with the flat stick which is what you want to see. He has solid history at TPC Twin Cities with 3 top 10s over his last 5 visits and has gained 3+ strokes with the putter in each of the last 3 trips as well. He looks like a great option this week given the price tag and recent form.
Kevin Roy ($7,300): Roy has definitely been a late bloomer who is having a great season by all accounts. Most of his high finishes are in fairly weak fields, but this field is quite weak in general. He is 8th in wSG:APP, 21st in BOB%, 11th in Driving Accuracy and 6th in GIR% which is very solid for the price tag. He did MC here at the 3M Open last year in his first attempt, but he is a completely different golfer now if you ask me. In general, he is a decent putter as well so if he can run hot on the greens then there is a chance he could actually turn heads this week and pick up his 4th top 20 in his last 6 tournaments.
Chandler Phillips ($6,900): There isn’t much going on in the $6,000 range that I like, but a name that stands out is Phillips. He is fairly boom or bust, with mostly MCs and top 20s over the last few months. He seems to like TPC courses, making the cut this year in 5 of the 6 events on a TPC track. This field isn’t that great and most of his top 20 finishes have come in weaker fields. Just looking at the numbers in comparison to this field, he is in the top half if not top 40 in every key category we are weighting for this week except for Driving Distance which is not the most important this week compared to some. I think if he can just have a spike putting week we could see him finish quite high. At less that 1% ownership, he also opens up a lot of the chalk who seem to model quite well this week. Use him as that leverage play that could separate you from the pack.
Best Bets
All bets are based on odds from Draftkings Sportsbook
R1 3-Ball, Yu/Malnati/Schenk, Kevin Yu (-105): When looking at the skill level of these 3 golfers, Yu is currently miles better than both Malnati and Schenk who haven’t done anything over the last year or so. For me, it is the fact that Yu is 7th in my model whereas Malnati is 144th and Schenk is 124th. That is way too large of a discrepancy for me to not take this even with it being below an even money return.
Doug Ghim Top 30 (+190): The Ghim Reaper is coming in with fairly solid form, picking up a T20, T19 and T31 over his last 3 in fairly weak fields similar to this weeks. He has finished in the top 30 in 4 of the last 5 3M Opens so he clearly likes this course quite a bit. He is a strong BOB% guy that hits the green and has great irons compared to the rest of this field. I think he can make it top 30s in 5 of the last 6 as long as the putter can be a weapon this week.
Outright Winner Bet(s): Greyserman 28/1, Thorbjornsen 35/1, Cam Champ 50/1, Bezuidenhout 65/1, Lower 250/1
