The Open Championship Preview
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Course Description
Weather
Custom Model
Ownership
DFS Picks
Betting Picks
The Open Championship
Royal Portrush / Portrush, United Kingdom
Tournament Preview
The 153rd Open Championship, taking place from July 13-20, 2025, at Royal Portrush Golf Club in County Antrim, Northern Ireland, is one of golf’s most prestigious events, known as the oldest major championship in the sport. This marks the third time Royal Portrush has hosted The Open, following its debut in 1951 and a memorable return in 2019.
Field: 156 players, comprising professionals and amateurs who qualify through various exemption criteria or qualifying tournaments
Cut: After 36 holes, the top 70 players (and ties) advance to the third and fourth rounds
Playoff Format: If players are tied after 72 holes, a three-hole aggregate playoff is used, followed by sudden-death if necessary
Prize: The winner is crowned the “Champion Golfer of the Year” and receives the Claret Jug
Par: 71
Length: 7,337 yards (6,709 meters), one of the longest on The Open rota
Fairway Width: Average of 28 yards, demanding precision off the tee
Greens: Browntop Bentgrass, known for subtle contours rather than extreme slopes, requiring precise approach shots
Bunkers: 62, fewer than other Open venues, with deep pot bunkers strategically placed within fairways rather than along edges
Weather
My honest assessment of the current weather conditions is be prepared for it to change. With plenty of rain pockets scattered throughout the entire week, things will be volatile. Whenever that is the case, I usually tend to suggest building lineups in sets. I think a weather wave edge could present itself, but predicting what mother nature will do could be impossible. Build some lineups with all AM/PM golfers, build some with all PM/AM golfers then a mixture of both waves. On the surface, it is looking a lot like in 2019 when Shane Lowry won here at Royal Portrush. The winds likely won’t be a major factor like some Open Championships. The rain will be what might come into play. You likely won’t see as much roll out as usual and they might actually be able to stick the greens more consistently given these are very slow greens compared to PGA and Open Championship standards. I think we get some big gusts and it is likely the winner just has enough good breaks and plays an all around great game to capture the Claret Jug. My prediction is the winning score will be around -10 to -13.
Custom Model
Model Values (Last 36 Rounds):
SG:APR: 15%
Driving Accuracy: 15%
GIR%: 15%
SG:PUTT: 12%
SG:T2G: 10%
SG:Slow Greens: 10%
SG:ARG: 8%
Driving Distance: 5%
Sand Saves: 5%
Scrambling: 5%
Ownership and Picks
High Ownership Options (By Price Range):
$10,000+
a) Scottie Scheffler ($14,200)
b) Rory McIlroy ($11,500)
$9,000
a) Tommy Fleetwood ($9,500)
b) Xander Schauffele ($9,700)
$8,000
a) Viktor Hovland ($8,300)
b) Tyrell Hatton ($8,090)
$7,000
a) Russell Henley ($7,900)
b) Sepp Straka ($7,400)
$6,000
a) Harry Hall ($6,400)
b) Maverick McNealy ($6,100)
$6,000
a) Jordan Smith ($5,900)
b) Kristoffer Reitan ($5,900)
Favorite Golfers:
Jon Rahm ($10,400): This $10,000 and above range can basically be talked about in the same way. They are all in incredible form and look hungry to take the final major of the year. For me, this comes down to price and fit. He has been incredible at Open Championships over the last few years with top 10s in 3 of the last 4. He is coming off of a 2nd at LIV Andalucía where he gained across the bag and massively on approach. He is one of the more accurate drivers of the golf ball which will be crucial this week and his approach game is in an incredible spot. As long as he can be solid on the greens, I think he is the best value of this bunch at the top. It just feels like the time for him to get back in the winner’s circle.
Shane Lowry ($9,300): This price range isn’t all that appealing to me in general, but I do have some appeal for Lowry. For starters, he is the defending Royal Portrush Open Champ from back in 2019 so clearly there is good history. He is one of the best iron players in this field and the only one in this range that can really contend with him in that category is Xander. He is incredibly accurate off of the tee which is a must this week and is top 10 in this field in GIR%. I can fairly confidently say that if he were to fail, it would be because his putter lets him down. He really isn’t playing well on the green as of late. I think being back at home could be what gets him locked it to possibly win again here at Royal Portrush.
Tyrell Hatton ($8,900): I am overlooking the ownership this week on Hatton because he is my only outright pick to win the 2025 Open Championship. What scares me about saying that is his driver hasn’t been the most accurate as of late which could be a bit of a problem. However, he is top 30 in my model rankings in every other category except for Scrambling. If he can run a hot putter, he can without a doubt win this golf tournament on the back of incredible iron play and around the green savviness. Look for the Brit to take his national open and hoist the Claret Jug this week.
Sam Burns ($7,400): Honestly this range is loaded with so many good plays it was truly difficult to choose one. All of Henley, Fitzpatrick, Straka, Griffin, Reed and Fox (along with Burns) make a ton of sense and make it easy to fit in the 1 if not 2 golfers in the $10,000 and above range. To find success at Royal Portrush, having an accurate drive and a great putter I think are the biggest game changers. Burns is 2nd in this field in putting and 28th in Driving Accuracy. His approach play seems to finally be turning a corner, gaining in that category in 4 of his last 5 tournaments after going 10 straight in the red. The course conditions feel similar to that of Oakmont for the US Open from a weather standpoint where he finished T7 and if not for the bogus call on the back, I think he could have won. I think the stars are finally aligning for Burns who could make a run at this one and you can get him at sub 10% ownership which can’t be said for a lot of this price range.
Harry Hall ($6,400): Another guy that I think I am going to overlook the ownership on. It is a touch high, but for good reason. He has not finished outside of the top 25 in any of his last 7 tournaments. That is a wild stat to be saying about anyone in this field outside of the top 4 better yet someone that is this price tag. He is a great putter, very accurate off of the tee and a very strong around the green game to go with it. I see no reason he can’t have another solid performance this week and well over pay off this price tag.
Kristoffer Reitan ($5,900): Once you get down into this price range, no one will be able to check off many boxes and will have some weaknesses in their game. Someone who really impressed me last week was Reitan who I thought wasn’t going to be able to replicate his crazy strong run on the Euro tour, but finished T14 while gaining across the bag other than putting where he was basically a zero. Overall, he is actually a great putter and maybe coming to slower greens than that of the the Renaissance Club will be just what he needs to get back to that level. He is great T2G and has a solid GIR%. I think what might hold him back is his Driving Accuracy isn’t the greatest, but he makes up for it with distance. If he can just find a way to not go OB or put himself in crappy situations in the rough, he should be just fine.
Best Bets
All bets are based on odds from Draftkings Sportsbook
Nationality of Winner, UK/Ireland (+240): I am going to go in a completely different direction this week with my standard bet and not go with a Matchup. I think the winner for this week will be someone playing in their homeland. With this bet you get Hatton (who I have as my winner selection), Rory, Lowry, Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, Rose and many other guys with deep odds that actually do have some appeal like Harry Hall, Aaron Rai and Marco Penge. The first group compared to the likes of USA and Continental Europe just feels deeper. USA scares me with Scottie and Bryson, but Scottie just doesn’t jive incredibly well with links courses and Bryson’s driver could very well be a detriment instead of a weapon if he tries to take off too many corners. Continental really just has Rahm, Aberg, Sepp and Hovland which is solid, but I don’t think as deep as that of the UK/Ireland group. Risky bet, but I think it pays off.
Patrick Reed Top 20 (+260): The numbers speak for themself for Reed. He is great tee to green and has a very solid around the green game that will be necessary this week. He has gained with the putter in a a whopping 9 of the last 10 majors which will be very important and his best Open Championship finish conveniently came at Royal Portrush back in 2019 with a solo 10th place. He has come out and said if he wants to get onto the Ryder Cup team, he basically has to go out and win this which is exactly what I think he aims to do. Can he pull it off? I don’t know, but he will be gunning quite hard to get it done and just a top 20 number of +260 feels like solid value.
Outright Winner Bet(s): Tyrell Hatton 30/1
Make the Cut Parlay: Henley/Reed/Burns/Hall/Taylor/McNealy/Penge/Reitan - (+3345)
