FedEx St. Jude Championship Preview
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Course Description
Weather
Custom Model
Ownership
DFS Picks
Betting Picks
FedEx St. Jude Championship
TPC Southwind
Tournament Preview
The St. Jude Championship is the 1st leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. It is played at TPC Southwind and will feature the top 69 players in the FedEx Cup Regular Season Standings with Rory McIlroy opting to sit out this week. It is a no-cut event played across 4 rounds with 2,000 FedEx Cup points awarded to the winner of the tournament.
Purse: $20,000,000 purse with the winner receiving $3,600,000
Length and Layout: Par 70, 7,288 yards, with a net gain of 45 yards from renovations, notably the par-4 fifth hole extended to 529 yards.
Greens: Newly resurfaced with TifEagle Bermudagrass, increasing to 4,500 square feet with added undulations, creating a learning curve for returning players.
Water Hazards: Features lakes, streams, and ponds, with water in play on 11 holes, contributing to the highest number of “water balls” on the PGA TOUR since 2003.
Renovations: Completed in 2024, the multimillion-dollar project included Zeon Zoysiagrass fairways, rebuilt greens, resurfaced tee boxes, and an upgraded irrigation system. These changes aim to improve playability and drainage while maintaining the course’s difficulty.
Historical Context: The tournament began as the Memphis Open in 1958, moved to TPC Southwind in 1989, and evolved through names like the FedEx St. Jude Classic and WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational before becoming the FedEx St. Jude Championship in 2022. Past winners include Vijay Singh (four-time champion), Sergio Garcia, Dustin Johnson, and recent winners Will Zalatoris (2022), Lucas Glover (2023), and Hideki Matsuyama (2024).
Disclaimer/Full Transparency: I did use AI for this, so if it directly took content from and article or piece that you have written, I would love to give credit where credit is due.
Weather
This is about as clean of a weather forecast that we have seen on tour this entire season. Wind peaking at 15 mph is a complete non-factor, the temperature remains consistent across all 4 days and almost no rain at all should make for a great scoring week. No weather wave advantage at all so fire away at whichever golfers you like most.
Custom Model
Model Values (Last 36 Rounds):
SG:APR - 20%
SG:PUTT - 15%
Driving Accuracy - 15%
GIR% - 10%
SG:PUTT Bermuda - 10%
SG:TPC Southwind - 10%
SG:TOT 2+ - 10%
SG:OTT - 5%
Driving Distance - 5%
Ownership and Picks
High Ownership Options (By Price Range):
$10,000+
a) Scottie Scheffler ($13,000)
b) Russell Henley ($10,000)
$9,000
a) Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,700)
b) Viktor Hovland ($9,300)
$8,000
a) Hideki Matsuyama ($8,800)
b) Cameron Young ($8,200)
$7,000
a) JJ Spaun ($7,700)
b) Daniel Berger ($7,800)
$6,000
a) Nick Taylor ($6,900)
b) Emiliano Grillo ($6,600)
Favorite Golfers:
Scottie Scheffler ($13,000): The gap between Scottie and this field is just too large for me to want to pass up. It becomes a bit tough to fit him and another stud in, but being this is a no-cut event, there will inevitably be a few guys towards the bottom that will put up enough points to still make Scottie optimal in most cases. He is top 10 in every major category except for driving stats which are still top 20 over the last 36 rounds. I just can’t get over the fact that in my model he is almost 10 entire points clear of 2nd which is not something that happens often if ever. His win equity is just so much higher than anyone else in this field that if you fade him and he wins it will be very tough to take one of the top spots. Just don’t get cute with Scottie and fade him this week.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,000): At ownership, I feel like Cantlay is quite the steal this week. This is very much an approach heavy course which Cantlay is 8th in this field in over the last 36 rounds. In his 8 trips to TPC Southwind, he has finished top 12 in 6 of those tournaments so there is some great course history. While putting has been a bit shaky lately, he putts to a zero on Bermuda greens which is what they will be on this week. Not to mention he has been a positive putter at this course in 7 of his 8 trips as well. I think he can provide the full package this week and the recent rumors of him possibly being left off the Ryder Cup team might ignite the flame for him to put up a strong performance this week.
Sam Burns ($8,900): If we want to look at what is most important this week, it is Driving Accuracy, Approach and Putting. I know that is most weeks also the case, but this week especially with all of the water in play it is crucial. Amongst this field, Burns is 7th in Putting, 15th in Driving Accuracy and while he might be 30th in Approach, he has gained in that category (and quite significantly) in 5 of the last 6 events. His low model score for that is being deflated by some pretty awful approach play from a few months ago. I can’t say the recent form has been that great which should keep his ownership low, but oddly enough it is mostly due to poor putting which across the entire season he has been 1st on tour in that category. If he can just bounce back there I could see him really making a run at winning this week.
Shane Lowry ($7,400): This one scares me a bit because the putting has been atrocious as of late, but with Lowry being top 5 in both Driving Accuracy and Approach over the last 36 rounds has me very much intrigued. His history around TPC Southwind has been shaky as well, but he has had some spike putting weeks here which is promising and they have done a ton of renovations to these greens that could be a positive for him. I get the vibe that if he can just be a zero or better putting this week then he can certainly be in the mix come Sunday. That is a lot to ask though, so tread lightly.
Emiliano Grillo ($6,600): Ownership aside, I can’t really see anyone in the $6,000 range that would be more appealing than Grillo right now. Most everyone down here is fading off more than they are getting hot outside of maybe Nick Taylor or Justin Rose. His game fits very well to this course with him ranking 9th in this field in SG:APP and 3rd in Driving Accuracy over his last 36 rounds. He has played here a ton over the years with a couple strong finishes, but at the price tag you don’t even need him to finish way up the board. Anything inside the top 20 or 30 will be more than enough given this is only a 69 golfer field. He also ranks 9th in this field in GIR% which will be crucial this week. All we need out of him is to bring his normal game and just be a zero with the putter. That recipe will bring him great success this week.
Best Bets
All bets are based on odds from Draftkings Sportsbook
R1 Matchup - Justin Thomas vs. Matt Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick (-110): This one scares me because JT is one of those dudes that could break a course record any round and it wouldn’t surprise me. However, with how erratic he is off the tee and how much water there is on this golf course, I think he finds some trouble this week. Hopefully it comes in the R1 when we need it, but this is an incredibly driver heavy course which sometimes is JT’s detriment. As for Fitzy, he is top 30 over the last 36 rounds in ALL 9 stats we modelled for, including being top SG:PUTT and top 20 in most others. He is playing some great golf as of late and I see no reason he can’t beat JT as long as he doesn’t have a regression week with the driver like he did back in 2023.
Sam Burns Top 20 (+130): I feel like out of 69 golfers, Burns with how well rounded his game is can get himself into the top 20 this week no problem. He is 2nd in my model with strong putting and approach stats as of late. He has been incredibly accurate off the tee which will be necessary and has shown some great success at this course in the past with a T5 just last year. I love him as a DFS play this week and feel very confident in him in the betting market as well.
Outright Winner Bets:
Cantlay 35/1
Burns 40/1
Lowry 50/1
Taylor 80/1
Grillo 110/1
